Tuesday, February 25, 2020

Gold is Money Again

Central banks around the world bought 651 tonnes of gold in 2019.  That's an astonishing thing for a myriad of reasons beyond just the staggering amount.  Here's how much gold that is pictures.

Gold is enjoying a bull market in recent years but who and what is driving the price?
In March of 2019 the Bank of International Settlements(BIS) in Basel Switzerland re-classified gold from a tier 3 class of assets to a tier 1 asset.  Tier 1 is the same as cash.  This move is a bank accounting change that allows banks to value their gold reserves as if they were cash.  Before hand, gold reserves could only be valued at 50% of cash.  This obscure change in central bank policy has not made many headlines but it may be the main factor driving the price of gold over $1500.00 USD per ounce in the months following the change.  Central banks had been on a shopping spree prior to March of 2019 for other reasons but central bank gold acquisitions in 2019 were double those of 2017 and the same as in 2018
The Basel III change has re-monetized gold for central banks.
Of course this doesn't matter to central banks that don't own any gold.  And one of those banks is the Bank of Canada which liquidated its gold in 2016.  Canada, as a signatory has adopted the new policy.
 "this new system is already in place in Canada, as confirmed by Canada’s top financial regulator, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI). Under the previous rules, gold was rated as a Tier 3 asset (there are now only two tiers), and had a 50% Risk Weighting Assessment (RWA)."
Another central bank without gold is the Bank of England which sold all of its tons of gold in 1999 at $300 USD per ounce. It seems unbelievable.   Known as Brown's Bottom,  it must be seen as colossal gaff in public policy.   Those that don't view gold as cash but only as an archaic commodity will likely defend these moves to this day.  But virtually every financial advisor continues to recommend holding 10%-15% gold in portfolios as a hedge against inflation and a traditional source of wealth.  Apparently this isn't good enough for the finance ministers who executed those sales.
That advice is good for individuals and especially for Canadians.  In general, the Canadian federal government does not store wealth.   All of the net income the government receives is returned to Canadians in the form of benefits.  (Plus a few billion that the government borrows.)  While gold is not handed over to Canadians in the same way as tax deductions, the Royal Canadian Mint provides an opportunity to acquire gold (and silver) at near spot prices.  This is 9999% Canadian gold.,  This is fine gold.  This is coin of the realm,  legal tender.  Most Canadians have the same attitude towards holding gold as the finance minister who sold all The  Bank of Canada's gold. We can all walk into a bullion dealer and buy gold maple leaf coins with our cash.  Around the world, acquiring gold is not nearly so easy and affordable and legal.  Gold can be held in an RRSP and a TFSA although this is not recommended for all one's gold, it is a way of making gold tax deductible.  But for larger amounts, for those who cannot safely store their gold at home or who don't want to, this can be a good option.  Some gold should be held in physical form and in fractional sizes for use in post apocalyptic times.
For a long time, especially in western countries, gold has been treated largely as a commodity by governments and investors, even though globally it has always been and is money.  The $USD remains the reserve currency of the world despite efforts by China and to a lesser extent Russia to get out from underneath the thumb of Uncle Sam. The move by the Bank of International Settlements to re-monetize gold has allowed central banks to significantly reduce the proportion of USD$ in their reserves and many banks have done that to some extent.  No fiat currency in history has ever outlasted gold.  It would be prudent to heed history's lessons in good times in case of hard times, especially when the opportunity is so accessible for Canadians.
The buying of gold en masse by central banks has notably impacted annual mined supply in recent years.  It seems that despite this absorption of supply, gold prices have not reacted accordingly yet. Some predicted that the Basel III policy change would cause a big spike in gold prices but a year later, we have only witnessed steady increases.
The USA sovereign debt has reached 22 trillion dollars.... Canada's sovereign debt recently reached the 1 trillion dollar milestone.   While this leverage of money has added near crippling interest costs to governments, ordinary citizens have and can still benefit from the chance to convert some of  this unprecedented cash flow into tangible and physical, precious metal assets such as gold. Not only can gold holdings be tax deductible,  Its sale is tax free.  Governments encourage Canadians to take advantage of this resource. Those who have held gold in their portfolios and purchased gold regularly through the years are now in a position  to profit from the sale of some of that gold now and convert it into other needed assets.
Canada is the 5th largest gold producing nation in the world.  Based on the incomes of Canadians,  buying gold is relatively affordable compared to the majority of people living in the top gold producing countries.  While $2000 .00 CND is real money,  most working folks in China, the world's top producer, would likely have a lot of difficulty raising that much investment capital. 





Saturday, October 18, 2014

Best Smartphone and Best Mobile Phone Company in Canada

The Nexus 6 is the biggest, fastest, and most expensive Nexus phone to date. It has all the top-tier specs users come to expect, rather than slightly undercutting the competition and offering a lower price. It’s on par with the Note 4, Galaxy S5, and all other manufactures this year., The Nexus 6 specs are available now,  and Google says it will be available in early November. But all things considered, IS IT THE BEST SMARTPHONE?
I started shopping for a phablet 2 years ago when they were first offered. The only way for me to get one was to order it sight unseen from abroad.  I hate doing this but in a country like Canada that almost never gets cutting edge devices until they aren't cutting edge any more, this is the only way.  I bought the very first internet tablet from NCIX back in 2007 ....My Nokia N800 still works flawlessly!...I then went on to acquire the N900, with difficulty.  But anyway, I almost bought the cutting edge Asus FonePad but I would have had to order it from Hong Kong and since it was going to be my phone I was unsure about the large size. 
I went to WindMobile to handle the Huawei Ascend Mate when was first offered a year and a half ago.  This was the first phablet offered in Canada and I wanted one!...But when I held it I found that it was bigger than I liked for constant carrying.   I know that the high end phablets like the ones listed above are a little thinner and a little lighter but not much! and they are a LOT more expensive.  So I went for a 7" Kindle Fire HD. It was less than 1/2 the retail price of the Ascend and it does have top end specs.   Now I can carry  both devices when it's convenient or just my small phone when it's not.   Based on size only, I think I'd rather have the Nexus 5...but if I didn't have my Kindle I'd likely buy a phablet, likely the Huawei Ascend Mate 2.   It doesn't have top end specs but they're very good, the device is available for $149 bucks on Wind Tab!  Also, if I lose it or break it I won't cry as much as if it was a $1000+ iphone 6 ..One needs insurance on that thing...seriously!
It looks as though local prices of Craigslisted Nexus 5's have come down about 50 bucks to about $275 ....I still don't want to pay that much to an unkown seller for a device that retails for $349 but a lot of people are willing since most new or flawless Nexus 5's that are listed for less than $300 bucks sell with a day or so.  And why not?  this is one of the best smartphones available and its about 1/2 the price of an iphone. 
But I delayed the need to buy a new phone by acquiring my Kindle Fire HD.  With an limited data plan offered by WindMobile I don't need to be concerned about my usage.  I tether it with my old LG Optimus 2X.  that still works almost flawlessly.  I've dropped on the floor, drowned it in the river....It does everything up to date smartphones do but of course the specs aren't up to date.  I like it especially for its swappable battery and its micro SD card slot.  Newer devices often omit these conveniences and build in an expensive battery and memory...There's no need for this in my view.  I can carry a spare $10 battery or a $25 32GB SD card.   I don't need to a pay exorbitant amounts to have these things built in, not to mention the fact that I never need to worry about running out of power with a little battery in my pocket.   It was way ahead of its time.   I had not foreseen that it would be software not hardware that would nudge me towards a new device.  Typically for Canada, LG has not offered an OS update for my phone...its stalled at Android 2.2 Froyo.  In other countries  4.1 is offered.  WHY NOT CANADA?
I don't understand why phablets are so much more expensive than tablets,   The Kindle Fire and the Nexus 7 for example are every bit as good as the top tier phablets that cost hundreds of dollars more.....I can't believe that building full telephony, functionality into a small tablet costs upwards of 400 bucks!  But, for whatever reason...a Nexus 7" wifi is $200,  with 4G...its $400....but a Nexus 6 is well over $700 bucks retail!
Why do I have to be like this??  Why can't I  just drift into the Rogers Gouge Me store, sign the papers,  pick up my whatever phone and walk out????  Because I want to save money and I want you to as well.   So what is the very best deal on the best microcomputer/smartphone/tablet out there?   Hands down the Google Nexus 5.  Will it work on the best priced mobile phone network in Canada? Yes it's a pentaband phone, it runs on the AWS 1700./2100 WindMobile frequencies.

Monday, March 25, 2013

THE NEW RCM $20 SILVER COIN. WHEN IS A TWENTY A TWENTY?

The Royal Canadian Mint has begun issuing $20 silver coins that are exchangeable for bills or coin money at face value...It's a small reversal of a decades old trend that has seen all currencies world wide become tokens with no intrinsic value...All our money is now made of polymer and steel for example whereas our coins were sterling silver and 80% silver along with copper and nickel at different points in Canadian history. The silver $20 coins can be ordered online where mailing costs are incurred but one can also walk into the RCM retail store at 752 Granville, and other RCM shops around Canada, hand over a $20 bill  (or steel coins) and receive a solid, 9999 silver, $20 coin! The limited issue coin won't be sufficient to transfer wealth from the fed to the trouser pockets of the nation en masse but this is a rare and valuable chance to take silver out of government coffers with no premium....I don't know of anywhere else in the world where this is currently possible. http://www.mint.ca/store/product/coin_exchange.jsp?itemId=prod1660011&sp_rid=MjgxNDM1MTM1NgS2&sp_mid=5827421&spMailingID=5827421&spUserID=MjgxNDM1MTM1NgS2&spJobID=69260611&spReportId=NjkyNjA2MTES1

The silver coin thing is a strange thing when one is trying to attach value for the holder. 
The $20 silver coin that the mint is issuing weighs about 1/4 of an ounce.  On the spot market (that is the wholesale price of silver via the commodities market today) that's about  $7 bucks worth of silver...So why would anyone pay $20 bucks for that much silver?..Well because you aren't buying silver, you are buying Canadian money.  The second reason is because the retail price of silver which is the price that you and I can pay for  a small amount at a store is much higher.......But still not not $20 bucks for a 1/4 ounce ...So why would anyone...?...Well because the mint says it's worth $20 bucks that's why and the mint has the hammer.   When we are talking about money, the mint calls the shots....The mint says that a piece of paper or polymer is worth $20 bucks and there's no silver in those bills at all.   But wait you say, if I can buy more silver for less money at a coin dealer's retail store such as J&M  then why would I pay $20 bucks for a coin with only a 1/4 ounce silver.   Which amounts to $80 bucks an ounce, when I can buy full ounce of silver for $35 bucks at a retail store?   Well because the 1 ounce silver maple leaf coin has a face value of only $5 bucks.  Even though it's legal tender, it's not designed for circulation as money because no one would spend a full ounce of silver to get $5 bucks worth of stuff at a store.   But we would be much more likely to spend a 1/4 silver coin that has a legal tender value of $20 bucks because we are only giving up a little silver.  But the seller would still be happy because he'd rather have silver than paper or polymer.
So it's still clear as mud right?..Yep....There's more.  A big reason why folks hold silver is because it's international currency...It's transportable wealth....The problem with holding debased currency ,especially coins that are made of little or no silver or gold, is that the world runs on paper money.  Coins generally can't be used at an international money exchange, can't be used at an ATM and if they have  intrinsic silver or gold value then one will likely have to go to a precious metals/coin dealer to get full value.  What does this all mean?  Well what it means is that we still need paper and polymer $20's.  But when the mint offers a silver $20 coin for paper $20....We should jump on that chance.  The coin will always have purchasing power of $20 in Canada plus we are getting a 1/4 ounce of silver in the bargain.  These coins have the backing of the Canadian Fed as legal tender AND the backing of the silver market for as far into the future as anyone can look.  If the price of silver goes down to a $1 an ounce one can always spend the coin and receive $20 bucks worth of gas or bread and anyone will exchange it for a paper $20.   If the price of silver goes to $80 bucks an ounce then the coin can be sold for 4 paper or polymer $20's!  That said, if you want to invest in silver because you believe the price will rise or because you want to create a doomsday fund then you should buy 1 ounce silver maple leaf coins because you get more silver for your money. You could still spend them if you had to and if the price of silver went to $1 an ounce they'd still be worth $5 bucks each.  The bottom line is.....Trade some of that paper cheque or that direct deposit or some of those paper $20's for silver and gold coins.  The future is uncertain but I'm not being apocalyptic.....Just look at what has occurred in Cypress these last few days.  The jury is still out on who will have his/her money seized by the state and how much.....The banks have been closed to prevent people from withdrawing their money.  This situation is a perfect example of why people should hold their own money in precious metals outside the bank or any other institution....Because when we need our money most of all, the bank will likely be closed TO STOP US FROM GETTING AT OUR MONEY!  And Cyprus is a Euro-zone country!  There are no guarantees in life as we all know.  We all like to think that this kind of thing won't happen in Canada but even if it doesn't there are good reasons for diversifying some of our wealth into precious metal coins.The coincidental occurrences of the Cyprus banking crisis and issuance by the RCM of the $20 silver coins can serve as a reminder.
  There are those who lament the move away from the gold standard that governments around the world have made in the 20th century.   Perhaps using cash that's made of gold and silver doesn't make sense in the modern economy. But for those of us who simply want our money to be made of traditional gold and silver instead of some sort of polyester resin like Mylar, Canadians are living in one of the very few countries in the world where this still is done.

Thursday, January 10, 2013

BURKE WHACKED BY THE LEAFS IN TORONTO....LUONGO STILL ON THE CANUCKS BLOCK

The sensational beheading of the Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Brian Burke yesterday provided an electrifying start to the 2013 season along with the kind of finish all hockey fans needed to the stultifying months of the NHL lockout.  No one saw this coming....not Brian Burke, not Dave Nonis, not the media and not me.
When Brian Burke went to manage the Leafs 4 years ago he was asked about what it would take to turn the Leafs into a winner.  Confident as always, as is necessary,  to his answer, he added the remark that ultimately describes the depth of his experience after decades in the game...."if management gives me the time."  The management that hired him gave the time, contractually speaking,  but the management team that fired him is not the same one. ( Bell and Rogers announced they were buying a 75-percent stake of MLSE last August). Most know that new bosses often clean house to make way for staff that they know and trust.  But this considered, unless there are underlying reasons that no one is privy to except the inner, top management team of Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment, this firing is a beautiful target for mud slinging and fair game for many rounds of analysis.
We still don't know why one of the most dedicated, experienced, passionate, successful, controversial  and best known managers in all the world of hockey was summarily dismissed yesterday, ten days before the start of the season and with 2 years to go on a multi million dollar contract.  The applauders can point to the lack of playoff success, the questionable wisdom of trading away valuable draft picks to aquire Phil Kessel, the parachute like implementation of Dion Phaneuf as team captain,  and the accusation that the the Leafs of today are no better than the Leafs of 4 years ago, especially if one is looking down center ice and onward toward the Leafs' net. ( Meaning that the Leafs don't have a brand name center nor goalie.)
But a more philosophical analyst would point out that building a winning team out of a perennial loser is a time consuming balancing act at the best of times.  The GM has to put a certain number of corner stones in place fairly early in his tenure and then fill in the remaining bricks as best he can over the following seasons as they become available, all the while reacting to the on going ups and downs of injuries, scandals, bad luck and other unforseen situations.
GM's that get fired often get to watch their replacements reap the rewards of firees efforts,  Ask Brian Murray about that, or ask Dave Nonis.
Speaking of Dave Nonis, if MLSE didn't like the moves that Brian Burke made, why didn't they whack the guy that helped make those moves.  Everyone knows that Nonis and Burke are a tight and loyal team.  Maybe the bean counters thought that since Dave was in place they didn't need Brian..I'm not sure how Brian's buyout clause reads.....but that can't be it because every one knows that the Leafs' are awash in money and the GM's contract doesn't have to come in under the cap....So one could say that Brian helped facilitate his early demise by having an assistant in place that is TOO GOOD!
As for my never humble opinion, the prudent thing for MLSE management to have done would have been to stand by and watch the GM do what he was hired to do for for the length of time it takes to get it done.  After all, if the Leafs are no closer to a cup now than they were 3, 4, 5 or  40 years ago....at least they are no farther away.  The stands are full, the season start imminent.....folks, this firing makes no sense.  Yep, well it's a world gone mad and sports reflects that so lets play hockey you might say.
Well then, will Dave pull the trigger on the what will surely be the most dramatic trade of this truncated season?  Will the guy that brought Roberto Luongo to Vancouver bring that same goalie to Toronto?  Many say yes.   If money is no object then why not bring the best, brand name goalie on the market to the biggest, hockey market in the world that needs a  brand name goalie? The answer is,  because its not just about money.  The Canucks aren't getting rid of Luongo to dump salary.  They are getting rid of Luongo because...uh....well actually it's not clear why they are getting rid of Luongo....nor if they even are.  Mike Gillis has said repeatedly that he really likes having two good goalies.  I wrote last spring when the "trade Luongo drums" became thunderous that it makes no sense to trade Luongo...and Mike Gillis has a lot of sense.  Also, the cap squeeze that the Canucks felt last spring has eased a little because several players that were part of that squeeze have popped out...Sami Salo signing in Florida is a case in point.  So now the Canucks are in exactly the place that they were in last season.  They have two very good goalies...and they can afford them as well.  Just like the LA Kings for example, who with an injured cup winning Jonathon Quick are very glad to have Jonothan Bernier ready to go.
The Leafs are in a different spot.  James Reimer has shown glimpses of brilliance and Ben Scrivens has yet to get a big break at the NHL level and was not a high draft pick.   But eviscerating the Leafs roster to get Luongo makes no sense to me from Toronto's stand point which is why Burke didn't want to do it.  The price is just too costly to the roster...not only to the cap hit.
Right so here's what makes Canucks fans scream and Leaf fans dream.   The Canucks should trade Cory Schneider to the Leafs for James Reimer, Tyler Bozak and sting 'em for a draft pick as well.  Both teams have their brand name goalies with backups.  The Canucks don't need Luongo's permission.  Both teams are under the cap.  The Canucks have their second line center and an ace in the pocket for giving up a brand name goalie for prospects.  Ok so talk amongst yourselves!

Saturday, November 3, 2012

How to Spend Thousands on a Mobile Phone

 Many people who have used iPhones exclusively  don't realize the limitations of the device.  iPhones are media darlings and Apple's profits resulting from the loyalty of its customer base are all we hear about.   Here are few sobering points to consider.
-Apple actually has a minor position in the mobile market place....despite its profits.   Over 70% of the world uses an Android device!
.....for good reasons.....
You cannot save files in an iPhone......incredible as it seems.  On my LG Optimus I save different types of files in "my documents" just like any normal computer but as far as I can figure out the only files saved on iPhones are iTunes. 
IPhones use proprietary chargers where as my Android device will charge with any USB cord....not only that but iPhones have hard wired battery packs...no charger?.......no call ......I carry a spare battery and just change it if I run low on power in my Android device....try that with your Iphone.
IPhones have no expandable memory.....no card slot! You cannot take pictures of your holidays and transport them on an SD card......unlike my android device........oh and here's the kicker.....the retail price of my LG 2X Optimus was $299.........compare that to an iPhone which is MORE THAN DOUBLE THE PRICE.
more techy details...my LG has a larger screen than an iPhone 4 and a dual core processor as well.....and my device is nearly 2 years old......the new one is a quadcore!........the iPhone 5 is still just a dual core device.
So why do most people buy iPhones?......well actually most people don't.
Something that I went through during my last mobile device upgrade was trying to integrate the 3 things that are essential when shopping.  I needed a device, a service provider and software....meaning apps and an operating system.  Everyone wants these components to connect seamlessly.  I found that getting there is easy.....as long as I was willing to pay....up front....every month.....and for YEARS IN TO THE FUTURE.  I hated that choice.  I paid dearly to the big providers for years like most Canadians because the the fed...meaning the CRTC created a oligopoly that crushed competition and led to decades of price gouging by Rogers, Telus and Bell.   One cannot blame these corporations for taking advantage of protected market conditions created by government policy.
Recently, the fed sold some band width..frequency licenses....by auction to create some competition and lower prices for consumers. It has been fairly successful but the fact remains that unless we shop very carefully for our hardware and services we as Canadians still end up paying more than a  THOUSAND  DOLLARS  A YEAR!.
 A mobile phone these days is essentially a micro computer that is commonly referred to as a "smart phone".  The industry works on a obsolescence rate of about 18 months.  The biggest trap that the "RoBelUs" (Rogers, Telus and Bell) set is the 3 year contract that includes all 3 components...service, hardware and software.  My research led me to estimate that these contracts cost about 4 thousand dollars plus add ons that vary from an additional few hundred dollars up to a couple of thousand, depending on how often people lose or break their phones and how much roaming and other crap that the companies gouge people for.  Basically a hundred a month for three years includes a new device with an upgrade every 18 months, Canada wide calling, text messaging and data (email and web browsing) and taxes.  It is possible to pay less but it's not a level playing field.
 The first thing that I tried to avoid was signing a 3 year year contract. I absolutely hated getting that bill every month automatically charging my Visa for more money than it should be and then having to phone the company to whine about it and try to claw back some of the money!  Once you sign and hand over your card, it doesn't matter whether you lose your phone, leave the country or die...you will be charged for the next three years!....don't do it. 
So my best move of all is DON'T GIVE THE COMPANY YOUR CREDIT CARD NUMBER)  unless you don't care how much you'll be charged.
 Second, don't sign a service contract. 
And third don't buy a device...a phone that is locked to the provider.  If you do and then you lose or break your phone you will have buy another phone while you are still paying for the one you lost!  Plus, if you do manage to change providers you will have to pay to get your phone unlocked.
Here's how I currently do it.  I bought a new LG smartphone....UNLOCKED.....
from an ebay seller.  That was two hundred dollars.  Then I purchased a month to month service agreement from Wind Mobile that has no limits and no contract,  plus a 15 dollar SIM card.  This means that I can phone anywhere in N. America, text anywhere in the world and surf the net endlessly ..not only on my device ...BUT ON MY HOME COMPUTER AS WELL.  I DON'T PAY FOR A SECOND INTERNET CONNECTION AT HOME. I tether my phone. The cost is 46 dollars a month including tax paid in advance,,,no post service billing.  The only time I've had to pay more is when roaming but it's still BY FAR the cheapest way to go.
Most people don't do it this way and they all mostly either get less service or they pay a lot more.   The reason is that the big companies HATE CUSTOMERS LIKE ME because they can't lock me into a big contract and then use it to borrow more money to buy arenas and waterfront condos all the while charging my credit card. I'm only thinking of our hard earned money. It sounds simple but I didn't find it so.  I tried to pay cash for a "pay as you go" phone with a data package from Rogers this summer...it was so expensive and complicated and time consuming that I gave up and used my Wind phone and ate the roaming charges.  The website states that the service is available but to get advertised price you have to pay with a credit card!  To pay cash I went to the retail store and I had to buy a voucher that cost more than the price of the service.. People who live in rural areas suffer the most from the high prices of service.   I bought out my Telus contract to the tune of 400 bucks because of my frustration with being charged long distance fees on what I thought were local calls,  I left Koodo for the same reason.  And I left Roger's because I was lied to about the system access fee.  I was told it was a government radio license fee....I paid that fee for 9 long years.  Wind has been great so far.  The drawback is that its only available to urbanites.   Crazy world huh?

Monday, April 23, 2012

CANUCKS BITE THE DUST EARLY......SO LUONGO WILL BE TRADED RIGHT?....NOT SO FAST MY FAITHFUL SCHNEIDER FAN!

 The cherry blossoms drifted  in the warm, April breeze around a silent Roger's Arena on the Monday morning after the unthinkable happened on the ice the night before.   The Vancouver Canucks were eliminated from the Stanley Cup Playoffs in the first round.   Anyone who has watched the Canucks for the last few months has seen that in some strange way the Canucks were able to pile up points and win the President's trophy, while watching the parts of their game that took them to within a game of winning the Stanley Cup last June dwindle to a fraction of their former strengths. 
Since the Canucks entered the NHL in 1970 they have made the playoffs 25 times during those 42 years.  They have been eliminated from the playoffs every single one of those times, usually in April....occasionally in May and  June.  So why is the Canucks' exit in April of this year so bitterly disappointing?  Why? Because of expectations that's why.  In the first 2 times that the Canucks were eliminated in the final in June the team was not well placed in the regular season and not really expected to win the cup.  Last year the team was expected to win the cup and nearly did...finally being eliminated in June.   This year the Canucks got soundly beaten in the first round after finishing first overall again. No one saw this coming.   Which is strange because the Canucks didn't really play badly...they got beaten by a better Los Angeles Kings team.  It was not about the play of Roberto Luongo who was on the bench for the goal by Stoll that was the final nail driven into the coffin that was the Canucks 2012 season.   Cory Schneider played well, very well and Luongo proved once again that he is a very, very good goalie.

So as the chatter in the bars and around the water cooler changes from talk about the Canucks on the ice to Canucks off the ice, the main issue that is always in the fore front is goaltending.
With the emergence this year of Cory Schneider as a capable starter instead of a capable backup the Canucks management has put itself in a difficult position.  Two years ago GM Mike Gillis signed Roberto Loungo to 12 year 64 million dollar contract effectively eliminating the chance for a major change in the Canucks' net for as far into the future as any of us can look.  Its easy to be critical of the contract but it's not actually, completely, crippling to the Canucks as long as Luongo stays on the ice and plays well.   When it becomes crippling is when the Canucks try to dump his contract on another team and sign Cory Schneider who is an RFA this summer.

 First of all, Cory is going to sign for significant money this summer and the Canucks do not have enough room under the cap to keep both goalies because none of their other players' big contracts are up for renewal this year.  It would be great to keep both goalies but it isn't possible under the cap.  The Canucks are already at the limit.
In a Luongo trade scenario the player(s) that the Canucks would have to take back would have a big contract so the Canucks would have to release several of  the players that are unrestricted this summer in order to fit under the cap.  Those players include, Salo, Pahlsson, Raymond and several other players.   Roberto Luongo is going to continue to be the Canucks' top goalie next season and for a long time to come.   With a no trade clause and making 6.7 million  for the next six years, as good as Luongo is, few teams would want or be able to take on that contract without significant concessions from the Canucks.  It might be tempting to try to move to the calmer, more technically sound and younger Cory Schneider as the number one puck stopper this summer but from a business and hockey standpoint it doesn't make any sense.

 The next reason why the Canucks will trade Cory this summer is because of what the Canucks can get in return for him.   The Canucks can get another good goalie to be the backup, a very very good roster player and likely a 1st round draft pick as well in return for the RFA goalie.  That is a package that will keep the Canucks contending for years to come, it will fit under the cap......and Mike Gillis doesn't have to ask Luongo's permission... all they need to do is keep on paying Roberto Luongo 6.7 a year.  Two years ago Canucks GM Mike Gillis thought that making Luongo the highest paid goalie in the game was proof that upgrading the goaltending would neither be necessary nor possible.  It will be very, very costly for him to change his mind now.  It would be disastrous to try to dump Roberto's salary just to sign Cory Schneider because the Canucks will likely have to take back just one high salaried player in order for the other team to be able to fit Roberto's salary under its cap thus missing out on the chance to secure the team's future by moving the much more trad-able Schneider.   So, Canuck fans, get used to the idea that Roberto Luongo is the Canucks' number one goalie now and look forward to the trade this summer that will send Cory Schneider away and bring some fine fresh faces to the Canuck's roster. 

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

CAN'T AFFORD A $500,000.00 CONDO DOWNTOWN?.....CONSIDER RAW RURAL REAL ESTATE IN THE GREAT WHITE NORTH

 Buying raw,  undeveloped land as opposed to houses and apartments is a very different type of real estate purchase.  There are several drawbacks and also some real advantages. In the long run, mortgage free land that has been used and enjoyed for decades can be a valuable part of one's retirement plan.   It can be especially important for people who never did manage to get into the urban real estate market while needing a city job and then, at retirement age, finding the cabin on peaceful rural acres to be a mortgage free domicile to kick start retirement years.

The good news on buying raw land is that it's cheap.  The bad news is that financing is more difficult to arrange.  Although Canada is huge and mostly undeveloped and unpopulated, very little land in Canada, as a percentage of the overall land mass, is available for private ownership and land remains an expensive proposition for most.  Raw, rural land is of course the cheapest, but one usually has to pay cash to get the very lowest price and that still entails many thousands of dollars.
So why would someone buy raw, rural land without the plan to inhabit it or develop it.  Well one reason is to build equity.  Once again, the problem of developing equity in raw land is that the banks don't like it as collateral to any large degree.  Most banks will loan in excess of 75% of the value of developed property because if foreclosure is required, the property will produce cash flow from the rent.  Raw land will likely only attract 20% of its value in the form of a loan.  This means for example that if you buy your land....build lots of equity over the years and then approach the bank for a mortgage to build your house, you have to jump through a lot of hoops and still may not get all the money you want. But for people who don't need or want to build a house or those who want to build for themselves over time, land outside city zones can be a very satisfying way to own real estate.

The reason of course that raw, rural land is cheap is that most folks want to live in urban centers where jobs, services and entertainment are plentiful. In addition, despite the relatively low cost of raw, rural land, if one decides to buy such land, the cost of acquisition combined with the carrying costs may inhibit other savings and disposable income to the point where buying urban real estate, i.e. a place to live, may be impossible.

Despite all this negativity the idea warrants merit and I did it!  Like many things that aren't mainstream it requires a need for a slightly alternative perspective on things. One of the best things about buying raw, rural real estate is that it's possible.  Even po folks like ourselves can afford to buy land in Canada and maybe even some land with some desirability, such as waterfront, proximity to home, large tracts, merchantable timber, arability etc.  Land is available in every province in Canada and in most provinces large acreages can be had for about $500 an acre.  Yes!  FIVE HUNDRED DOLLARS AN ACRE.  So what about all these condos and suburban houses across the GWN that cost hundreds of thousands for just an old house on a little lot?   Well there's a vast disparity in all kinds of Canadian real estate.   This blog isn't for those who are shopping on Vancouver's west side nor for those looking at family houses in Fort McMurray and other high priced neighbourhoods.  These ideas are for those who either dream of owning a place in the country or for those who see that as a way into the real estate market and who don't have the financial resources to carry a big mortgage or don't want to be saddled with one.

 These low priced, rural lands have the potential for providing useability, building materials, equity building and maybe even a little cash flow...all good things for someone on a tight budget.  Enjoying the privacy, the wide open spaces and flora and fauna of the countryside may be enough for many.  For those desperate for some sort of ROI. There are a many different ways to take some money and materials out of your rural acreage.   In most cases, you'll be doing well to get enough cash out of your land to pay the taxes if you don't actually work the land.  Of course, hard working folks can do better.
 It may be possible to rent arable land in whole or in part to a farmer.  Simply accepting some of the crop as rent maybe a good way to fill your freezer and offset your city food bill.

 If your land has merchantable timber, some of the acquisition cost could be offset by either logging it yourself or allowing a logging company to do it for you.  Or if the timber is of lower quality the land may still be a good wood lot for firewood sales, heating your cabin or sawing timber for lumber yourself which can be air dried and sold by the board foot and/or used to build your cabin which can then be rented out to others.
 By clearing the land as an improvement you might not only increase the value but also make other ways to develop cash flow.   You could own your own blue berry patch, grape vines for your own wine or plant fruit trees for examples.
By planting walnut trees that develop valuable timber over decades and provide nuts in the meantime, while not demanding daily maintenance, your land could be quite affordable in the short term and very valuable in the long term.

Land that has poor growing soil but is in an area of livestock farms maybe a candidate for composting to improve the arability.  Chicken, hog and other sale barns often have surplus manure that can be used for composting that will significantly improve the soil.   So cheap land with poor soil becomes more valuable land with good soil over time.  Good compost will be available from raw materials within a couple of years....a fairly short time to wait for great garden harvests.

These ways of using rural lands are well known to people who live in the country and can be used by city dwellers on weekends and vacations.  Exchanging that trip to Mexico for a two week trip to rural Ontario for clearing bush and bucking firewood might not excite the kids too much but when the weekends later on are spent berry picking, or harvesting honey from your hives or tapping your maple trees for syrup and candy, perhaps the road less traveled can be rewarding....and profitable after all.
I bought my land firstly to enjoy the use of it and I also I expected to achieve long term equity growth.  Both have occurred.
Lastly there is another reason that owning land is important......prestige, pride of ownership...you're the owner!  Private property rights are almost impossible to extinguish in Canada.  Once you own the land...you own it.  You can use it and will it to your descendants who will then not have to work those long hours to make all those mortgage payments.
But with your land you will most likely own it outright within 5 to 10 years.  You can farm it, rent it,  build a cabin, camp on it, do projects that require space like wood and rock work, have storage space and a myriad of other uses.
Sometimes, land that seems remote can become less so over the years because of growth in the area, improved roads or other transportation links.  Then, developments such as subdivision becomes a possibility.

Here's a great link because this a real estate company that provides uncomplicated financing for it's lands....all you have to do is make the payments and in five years you own it!
http://www.dignam.com/category/western-provinces/

Here's another good resource
http://www.niho.com/
Here's the most important link for shopping for land in Canada
http://www.realtor.ca/index.aspx

 The first five years after acquisition is always the most difficult.  After that, because of inflation the payments are smaller, the land is worth more, you're making more etc.  So it seems daunting at first but I've never met anyone who regrets buying land. 
Buying my land was a pivotal decision and remains one of the most important things I've ever done so I have no problem recommending it to friends.  But like the buying of silver....almost no one does it.  All you need is either a few thousand dollars or a bit of credit or both is nice of course.  In some cases the seller may take payments in order to make the sale possible..... Then you could buy land like this for example.
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=8834770&PidKey=-1083420418
or this
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11534826&PidKey=1554220469
feeling adventurous?  How about 155 acres for $20,000
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11493914&PidKey=-1380278859