Monday, April 23, 2012

CANUCKS BITE THE DUST EARLY......SO LUONGO WILL BE TRADED RIGHT?....NOT SO FAST MY FAITHFUL SCHNEIDER FAN!

 The cherry blossoms drifted  in the warm, April breeze around a silent Roger's Arena on the Monday morning after the unthinkable happened on the ice the night before.   The Vancouver Canucks were eliminated from the Stanley Cup Playoffs in the first round.   Anyone who has watched the Canucks for the last few months has seen that in some strange way the Canucks were able to pile up points and win the President's trophy, while watching the parts of their game that took them to within a game of winning the Stanley Cup last June dwindle to a fraction of their former strengths. 
Since the Canucks entered the NHL in 1970 they have made the playoffs 25 times during those 42 years.  They have been eliminated from the playoffs every single one of those times, usually in April....occasionally in May and  June.  So why is the Canucks' exit in April of this year so bitterly disappointing?  Why? Because of expectations that's why.  In the first 2 times that the Canucks were eliminated in the final in June the team was not well placed in the regular season and not really expected to win the cup.  Last year the team was expected to win the cup and nearly did...finally being eliminated in June.   This year the Canucks got soundly beaten in the first round after finishing first overall again. No one saw this coming.   Which is strange because the Canucks didn't really play badly...they got beaten by a better Los Angeles Kings team.  It was not about the play of Roberto Luongo who was on the bench for the goal by Stoll that was the final nail driven into the coffin that was the Canucks 2012 season.   Cory Schneider played well, very well and Luongo proved once again that he is a very, very good goalie.

So as the chatter in the bars and around the water cooler changes from talk about the Canucks on the ice to Canucks off the ice, the main issue that is always in the fore front is goaltending.
With the emergence this year of Cory Schneider as a capable starter instead of a capable backup the Canucks management has put itself in a difficult position.  Two years ago GM Mike Gillis signed Roberto Loungo to 12 year 64 million dollar contract effectively eliminating the chance for a major change in the Canucks' net for as far into the future as any of us can look.  Its easy to be critical of the contract but it's not actually, completely, crippling to the Canucks as long as Luongo stays on the ice and plays well.   When it becomes crippling is when the Canucks try to dump his contract on another team and sign Cory Schneider who is an RFA this summer.

 First of all, Cory is going to sign for significant money this summer and the Canucks do not have enough room under the cap to keep both goalies because none of their other players' big contracts are up for renewal this year.  It would be great to keep both goalies but it isn't possible under the cap.  The Canucks are already at the limit.
In a Luongo trade scenario the player(s) that the Canucks would have to take back would have a big contract so the Canucks would have to release several of  the players that are unrestricted this summer in order to fit under the cap.  Those players include, Salo, Pahlsson, Raymond and several other players.   Roberto Luongo is going to continue to be the Canucks' top goalie next season and for a long time to come.   With a no trade clause and making 6.7 million  for the next six years, as good as Luongo is, few teams would want or be able to take on that contract without significant concessions from the Canucks.  It might be tempting to try to move to the calmer, more technically sound and younger Cory Schneider as the number one puck stopper this summer but from a business and hockey standpoint it doesn't make any sense.

 The next reason why the Canucks will trade Cory this summer is because of what the Canucks can get in return for him.   The Canucks can get another good goalie to be the backup, a very very good roster player and likely a 1st round draft pick as well in return for the RFA goalie.  That is a package that will keep the Canucks contending for years to come, it will fit under the cap......and Mike Gillis doesn't have to ask Luongo's permission... all they need to do is keep on paying Roberto Luongo 6.7 a year.  Two years ago Canucks GM Mike Gillis thought that making Luongo the highest paid goalie in the game was proof that upgrading the goaltending would neither be necessary nor possible.  It will be very, very costly for him to change his mind now.  It would be disastrous to try to dump Roberto's salary just to sign Cory Schneider because the Canucks will likely have to take back just one high salaried player in order for the other team to be able to fit Roberto's salary under its cap thus missing out on the chance to secure the team's future by moving the much more trad-able Schneider.   So, Canuck fans, get used to the idea that Roberto Luongo is the Canucks' number one goalie now and look forward to the trade this summer that will send Cory Schneider away and bring some fine fresh faces to the Canuck's roster.